Markets are trading on edge this week as investors brace for the release of economic projections from the Fed, fresh inflation worries, and ongoing fallout from the Iran conflict. Here’s what’s happening …
- More than 375 companies report earnings this week. This morning, numbers are due from Tencent Music, lululemon, Docusign, and Oklo Inc., followed Wednesday by Micron Technology, Williams-Sonoma, General Mills, and Five Below. Thursday earnings are due from Alibaba, Accenture, FedEx, and Darden Restaurants, followed Friday by Carnival Cruises. *
- And while we’re on the topic of earnings reports, the SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission) is floating a plan that would let companies report earnings twice a year instead of every quarter. A draft could drop as soon as next month, kicking off a public comment period before any final vote. For now, nothing is guaranteed, and quarterly reports wouldn’t disappear entirely, they’d simply become optional. The idea has been gaining traction among regulators and some market voices who argue that less-frequent reporting could ease the burden on public companies, though investors who rely on regular disclosures are likely to push back. **
- With tensions from the Iran attacks hanging over markets and worries about inflation, the labor backdrop, and even stagflation creeping back into the conversation, the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at this week’s meeting. The pause isn’t surprising, even though some of the more hawkish voices, including President Donald Trump, are calling for an immediate and aggressive round of rate cuts. On Wednesday the Fed will also release its updated Summary of Economic Projections. That report should give investors a clearer sense of how policymakers are thinking about the Iran War’s impact on inflation in the near term, the medium term, and further out. Forecasts have shifted quickly over the past three weeks. Economists and strategists have been revising their outlooks, and a growing number now think the Fed may not cut rates at all in 2026. ***
- Oil prices look set for another choppy week as geopolitical tensions and shifting expectations keep traders glued to the energy markets. Forecasts from prediction platform Kalshi show a growing number of participants betting that crude will push higher in the coming days, with many expecting West Texas Intermediate to climb back above the $100 per barrel mark by the end of the week. Some projections on the platform go even further, pointing to the possibility of prices topping $106 per barrel by Friday. The wide range of estimates reflects the uncertainty hanging over global supply as traders weigh new geopolitical developments and the risk of disruptions along key shipping routes. ****
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