Markets got a jolt last week after the U.S. delivered an unexpectedly strong jobs report last Friday. This week, a one-two punch of inflation data should bring the U.S. economic outlook into better focus after a month of war in the Middle East. Here’s what’s happening …
- The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), hits on Thursday. This one is a bit of a catch‑up release, covering February data, but it still matters for the policy conversation. Economists are looking for about a 0.4% month‑over‑month increase and a 2.8% rise from a year ago, which would keep the trend in the “sticky but not spiraling” zone. Even with the bump, traders aren’t expecting any big moves from the Fed at its meeting later this month. The consensus is that policymakers will stay put and wait for a clearer read on how inflation is settling. *
- The other big inflation check‑in this week is the March CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, landing Friday morning. This one will give us the first official read on how inflation is reacting to the latest policy shifts out of Washington. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect headline CPI to jump from 2.4% in February to 3.4% in March, driven largely by higher energy and goods prices. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is also expected to tick up, from 2.5% to 2.7%. It’s shaping up to be another “inflation isn’t done with us yet” kind of print, and markets will be watching closely to see how much pressure this puts on the Fed’s summer playbook. **
- SpaceX’s long‑awaited IPO filing dropped last week, and it’s already shaping up to be a market‑moving moment. With a potential valuation north of $2 trillion, the listing wouldn’t just be historic—it’s already lifting the entire space sector. Rocket Lab popped about 10%, Planet Labs jumped even more, and AST SpaceMobile rallied sharply on the news. The takeaway: a SpaceX debut isn’t just a win for SpaceX. Investors are betting it could reset how the market values the whole space ecosystem, from launch providers to satellite networks. ***
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