Last week the S&P 500 was essentially flat while the Dow slipped, as investors digested volatility in AI‑linked stocks, uncertainty over a potential Fed rate cut in December, and fresh earnings reports that highlighted both resilience and concerns about sustainability. Here’s what’s happening this week…
- Traders are betting on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month due to signs of a weakening labor market. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams have both indicated support for a near-term rate cut. With the central bank’s December meeting approaching, investors are closely monitoring economic indicators, despite delays caused by the U.S. government shutdown. Currently, swap traders estimate a 70% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting on December 9 & 10. However, policymakers remain divided on the necessity of another reduction following the cuts in September and October. *
- New car prices hit a record high in October, averaging $49,105, up 3.1% year-over-year, driven partly by higher EV sales. Monthly payments climbed to $766, while interest rates eased slightly to 6.9%, still well above pre-pandemic levels. Dealers are offering modest discounts, but affordability remains a major challenge as financing costs add nearly $9,500 in interest over a typical 72-month loan. **
- Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds are on track for their worst month of outflows since launching nearly two years ago. Investors have withdrawn $3.5 billion from US‑listed Bitcoin ETFs in November, nearly matching the record $3.6 billion outflow seen in February. The exodus comes as Bitcoin itself faces its steepest monthly decline since the 2022 industry collapse, marked by the failure of FTX and other firms. Despite policy wins for crypto this year, the broader market has contracted sharply in recent weeks. Bitcoin briefly touched $80,553 on Friday before recovering some ground over the weekend, underscoring the volatility weighing on digital assets. ***
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